Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 5.129962 6.109254 7.193592 8.478910 9.956258 11.596418 13.550202
2025-03-16 3.506239 4.770357 6.329393 8.372866 10.957610 14.093386 18.157572
2025-03-23 2.736698 4.171444 6.107999 8.862183 12.618878 17.497178 24.231676
2025-03-30 2.118692 3.581158 5.720977 8.988557 13.740734 20.270754 29.761673
2025-04-06 1.662917 3.093499 5.346517 9.012121 14.650026 22.781553 35.124181
2025-04-13 1.321676 2.691890 5.002853 8.986441 15.427977 25.123084 40.403753
2025-04-20 1.180601 2.593346 5.114162 9.667162 17.328318 29.250818 48.598662
2025-04-27 1.007988 2.391759 5.005111 9.948827 18.597293 32.497602 55.693495
2025-05-04 0.879474 2.243786 4.959774 10.319567 20.030464 36.093849 63.568564
2025-05-11 0.733363 2.020647 4.728641 10.310904 20.792432 38.640395 69.928798
2025-05-18 0.584367 1.749663 4.349404 9.959295 20.889026 40.060554 74.520051
2025-05-25 0.460757 1.502823 3.970428 9.543871 20.804785 41.136358 78.574141
2025-06-01 0.382302 1.352726 3.782722 9.507362 21.463462 43.620203 85.309874
2025-06-08 0.309499 1.194815 3.546120 9.332891 21.836261 45.628318 91.379983
2025-06-15 0.282635 1.165791 3.617130 9.848218 23.650121 50.421642 102.716179
2025-06-22 0.242537 1.080502 3.527231 9.978764 24.673089 53.791519 111.667256
2025-06-29 0.204793 0.988840 3.400721 10.001749 25.464324 56.765841 120.062151
2025-07-06 0.171598 0.900026 3.262305 9.972675 26.133354 59.539744 128.236918
2025-07-13 0.164940 0.912740 3.421121 10.716225 28.593401 66.033120 143.831067
2025-07-20 0.147149 0.872565 3.412873 11.023700 30.085661 70.660900 156.072247
2025-07-27 0.133612 0.845487 3.439988 11.428375 31.837605 75.925473 169.820915
2025-08-03 0.113372 0.777923 3.321840 11.418901 32.607549 79.194570 179.804436
2025-08-10 0.090058 0.681842 3.084004 11.035056 32.431945 80.449619 185.828154